7. Climate Risks and the Acceleration of Population Implosion in East Asia

Rationale of the theme highlighting relevance and potential impact:

East Asia, as well as some countries in the Southeast Asia like Thailand, is currently undergoing a significant demographic transition characterized by declining fertility rates and rapidly aging populations. This pre-existing demographic trend makes the region particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors that could further impact humans. Climate change represents such a significant stressor, manifesting in East Asia through more frequent and intense extreme weather events. The increasing frequency of heatwaves and prolonged droughts, and more intensified and severe flooding, typhoons, coupled with rising sea-levels, pose substantial risks to human health, livelihoods, and overall well-being. Moreover, the climate impacts on human societies are place-based, varying across geographic locations. Meanwhile, spatial distribution of human population and their sociodemographic characteristics also differ from place to place.

Population-environment literature reveals exceptionally high risks of heat stress among the living-alone elderly population left behind by migration, as an example. The interplay between these climate hazards and human resilience in East Asia suggests a concerning trajectory for population stability. This Scientific Group focuses on examining climate risks in East Asia where population decline and rapid aging, as well as migration, urbanization, household formation and dissolution, improved education, and health conditions are common phenomena, which generate important effects on population exposure and social vulnerability. It may also draw occasional insights from Thailand, a Southeast Asian country facing similar demographic and climate-related challenges. It will investigate the general patterns and compare the differences among the counties and the subnational regions within each country.

The Scientific Group will also analyze the multifaceted ways in which climate risks act as a catalyst, exacerbating the ongoing population implosion in East Asia. It will explore how climate change contributes to negative health impacts (e.g., increased mortality rates and potentially decreased fertility rates) and drives climate-induced migration, all of which compound the challenges posed by aging populations and low fertility rates, using methodologies including but not limited to gridded population, big data, and multidimensional and spatial population projection. 

SG will address the following overarching questions over the period from June 2025 through December 2027:

• How do specific climate hazards (e.g., heatwaves, flooding, air pollution) disproportionately impact aging populations in East Asia, considering their spatial population exposure and social vulnerability?
• What are the feedback mechanisms between population implosion (e.g., shrinking labor force, declining social support networks) and the region’s capacity to adapt to and recover from climate risks?
• What are the implications of these intertwined challenges for public health systems, social welfare programs, and long-term sustainable development in East Asian nations?
• Can we identify spatial indicators and develop predictive models to forecast the synergistic impacts of climate risks and population implosion on health outcomes and regional resilience?

Objectives and provisional program of activities that the group would like to pursue over the period from June 2025 through December 2027 are as follows:

In-person workshops and online webinars (preferably twice per year):

• Fall 2025: People-based definition of cities, human settlements along urban-rural continuum, and gridded population (in-person workshop in Shanghai) via the 4th Asian Population Forum on “Demographic Methods and Models in Global and National Development Assessment Research” and a related training workshop, entitled “Application of the Degree of Urbanization for Demographic Research and Policy Analysis” by Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI)
• Winter 2025: Climate Risks and the Acceleration of Population Implosion in Taiwan and South Korea (in-person workshop in Taipei) hosted by the Institute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica (Aging and Life Course (ALC) and Farm for Change: Climate, Eco-poetics, Earth Justice (FFC) labs)
• Winter 2026: Sponsored session at the 7th APA Conference, Hanoi, Vietnam
• Spring/Summer 2027: Extreme heat, air pollution, and health impacts on older population (if funded, in-person workshop in Seoul or Taipei; if not, online webinar)
• Fall/Winter 2027: Climate impacts on population dynamics—fertility, migration, and health (online webinar)

7th APA Conference (2026):

• Paper sessions on East Asia’s population implosion and climate risks

Joint publications: 

• Special issue on Climate and Health in Spatial Demography and other journals 

Potential sources of funding and support: 

• National Research Foundation of Korea and Korea Environment Institute (in progress)