Iran’s Demographic Transition: Opportunities and Challenges
< Abstract >
Iran experienced an unprecedented fertility decline between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s, reaching a replacement level of fertility by the end of the 20th century. The persistent below-replacement level of fertility since the beginning of the 21st century has provoked strong policy responses, leading to the implementation of a pro-natalist population policy in the past decade. This presentation will examine the demographic mega trends in Iran by reviewing the process of demographic transition and its implications for population size, rate of growth, and age structure. The country’s persistent low fertility is discussed as one of the major features of population dynamics in Iran and strategic solutions to respond to this situation are presented. Then, the economic consequences of change in the age structure in terms of the first and the second demographic dividends and several issues relating to population aging are addressed. Drawing on a comprehensive assessment of population dynamics, the challenges and opportunities of releasing Iran’s demographic potential are presented to conclude the presentation.
< About the speaker >
Fatemeh Torabi is an Associate Professor of Demography, the Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences (2022-present), and the former Head of the Department of Demography (2020-2022), at the University of Tehran (UT), Iran. She has obtained her PhD from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK (2011). She has been appointed as the Deputy of the Centre for Women’s Studies, UT (2014-2016) and elected as a council member of the Population Association of Iran (2011-2017 and 2021-2023) and the Asian Population Association (2022-2024). She has been a Visiting Scholar at the NYU Population Center (2016-2019) and a Visiting Associate Research Scientist at the Department of Population and Family Health and Columbia Population Research Center, Columbian University (2018-2019). Her research interests include family demography, marriage and divorce, fertility, and gender studies in Western Asia, with a special focus on Iran. Her research results have been shared via several publications and presentations at national and international population conferences.