Page 68 - 5th APA Conference Program Book Final

both small and large birth sizes attain lower levels of learning outcomes compared to children born with normal
birth size. Findings also showed that children who were given postnatal care after birth had higher chances of
attaining a greater learning score, however no significant result was found. The findings show the detrimental effect
of early life experiences on the child learning outcomes in later ages. And urges to sensitize the individuals about
the quality care across the maternal and child health continuum.

PS 5.4 Labour Force

11:00am - 12:30pm Wednesday, 4th August, 2021

Presentation Type LIVE Session
Moderator: Maria Midea Kabamalan , Evita Hanie Pangaribowo

273 Labor force projections for India using microsimulation

3
Guillaume Marois , Rakesh Mishra
1,2
1 Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China. International Institute for Applied
2
Systems Analysis, Laxemburg, Austria. National Institute of Urban Affairs, Delhi, India
3
Categories

11. Population and Economy: Demographic Dividend, Labor Market and Population Policies

Abstract

The aim of the communication is to present a first set of labor force projection to 2060 for India and its
regions. Projections are made using a dynamic and time-based microsimulation model developed in SAS. The
population is first projected by age, sex, region, and educational attainment. Labor force participation status is then
calculated using parameters from logit models taking into account those individual characteristics and the past
fertility for women. The models also distinguish formal and informal work. Preliminary results show a strong increase
of the labor force size, resulting from a strong increase of the working age population. The proportion of women
among the workforce is however expected to stay low, as the expected extension of education and the decline in
fertility will not be sufficient to sharply increase their labor force participation rates. However, women will massively
switch from informal to formal work. We then built a policy-oriented scenario testing the impact of gender equality
in the labor force. This scenario yields a labor force size about 60% higher than in the reference scenario. Therefore,
the country could have a much greater benefit from the demographic dividend if women were more empowered.

380 Harnessing Demographic Dividend in Bangladesh

Ubaidur Rob, Nurun Nabi Talukder
Population Council, Dhaka, Bangladesh

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